Monday, January 16, 2012

New Hampshire Primary Result : Conservatives Win!

The most published (not popular or biggest) story of the 2012 New Hampshire primary is the Mitt Romney win.  Yawn.  An alternative proposal for the biggest story was that President Obama only received 80%; not so much (Pres. Bush only received 80% in 2004).  The real story of the New Hampshire primary was that conservatives did better than 2008.

Here are the 2008 Republican primary results:
  • McCain (37%)
  • Romney (31%)
  • Huckabee (11%)
  • Giuliani (9%)
  • Paul (8%)
  • Thompson (1%)
  • Hunter (1%)
  • Others (2%)
 In the 2012 primary, the results are:
  • Romney (39%)
  • Paul (23%)
  • Huntsman (17%)
  • Gingrich (9%)
  • Santorum (9%)
  • Perry (1%)
  • Bachmann (0%)
  • Others (2%)
In 2008, the first four vote getters are all liberal Republicans gathering 88% of the vote.  Frankly, given the views of McCain and Romney, I'm surprised that Romney only received 39% of the vote in 2012.  Had the demographic and situation been the same, one would expect Romney to get all the same votes, plus the McCain votes.  Huntsman appears to roughly get the votes of Huckabee and Giuliani.

So what is the most striking difference in 2012?  Ron Paul's increase from 8% to 23% has to be the most striking.  However, there was still another 20% of the vote going to conservative voters.  You could thus argue that approximately 43% of the vote went to conservatives in 2012 over the meager 10% from 2008. 

Let's face it, New Hampshire is not a bastion of conservatism.  In 2000, Senator McCain received 49% and President Bush 30%.  The 2012 election is reminiscent of 1996 election where conservatives led by Buchanan and Forbes.  So for conservatives to received that much of the vote, makes for the biggest story of the 2012 New Hampshire primary.

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